December 11, 2018

When the future is like the past, you don’t need new data. You can make a good decision based on old data. You can take the right action based on old data. When the future is like the past, taking the right action means doing what worked before.

  
When I work wit...

October 24, 2018

When you’re stuck, it’s frustrating. 


You’re in a fifty-fifty place where you could go either way. You could take the job or not. You could invest your time or not. You could get out or stay. Go or no go. Fifty-fifty.  


You can’t decide.


You’re stuck. 


To get unstuck,...

September 25, 2018

Working with risk is complicated. If you work in law enforcement or the military, you’ve got spreadsheets and computers and checklists to help you with risks. If you work in finance, you’ve got algorithms to help you make good decisions about risk. If you’re an entrepr...

August 15, 2018

In 2002, the U.S. military played a war game called “Millennium Challenge.” In charge of the "Blue" U.S. Forces were the highest-ranking U.S. generals and admirals. Leading the "Red" enemy was a retired U.S. Marine Corps General named Paul Van Riper. 


When yo...

July 27, 2018

In a trader's letter at Seeking Alpha, Nell Sloane says, “the prospect for protectionism and tariffs turning into currency wars, which then have a tendency to turn into hot wars, it is largely apparent this week things have certainly escalated.”


Jonathan Hillman of CSI...

July 20, 2018

A few months ago, China's President Xi said:

"We must refrain from seeking dominance and reject the zero-sum game, we must refrain from 'beggar thy neighbor' and reject power politics or hegemony while the strong bully the weak."

The Zero-Sum Game he's talking about is i...

July 10, 2018

Thank you to all who made The 24th Name the #1 new release in Kindle Singles Fiction:

Here's Chapter One: 

When I knocked on the door, a guy pulled it open and blinked into the sunshine. He shaded his eyes and found my face. “No girls?” he asked.
He thought he knew me, w...

July 3, 2018

I wrote a new short thriller called The 24th Name. It's the #1 new release in Kindle Singles fiction:

Here's what early readers said: 

"Just read it in one sitting - a thinking man's Jack Reacher or a real awareness campaign. You've managed to tell two stories from wit...

June 18, 2018

Everybody likes a good Zero-Sum Game. Whether you’re watching or playing a sport, you like the tension. You like the effort it takes to win. You like a performance that beats a rival. If the Zero-Sum Game is a war, you like defeating an enemy.


A big part of what makes...

May 29, 2018

I was consulting for a large company. The project was to tie the company’s data and analytics to their decision-making in a particular area. They had tried to do it several times before but hadn’t been able to make it work. They were desperate to get it right, so I had...

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