August 13, 2019

Boris Wertz of Version One recently put the returns of his investment portfolio up for every one to see.

In the comments, there’s a discussion of the risk profiles of Venture Capitalists and Company Founders.

Wertz says: “I personally think that being a founder is the mu...

July 2, 2019

When you take a risk, you feel it.

You feel the anxiety. You feel the fear. You know something could go bad. 


But you take the risk because it could go well. Which means you feel something more than fear and anxiety: You feel hope. You hope the bad thing doesn’t happen...

June 20, 2019

To know what risks to manage, you start with the risks that are possible.

Past data is great for telling you what’s possible. History gives you an idea of what could happen in the future.

In the history of espionage, a lot of things have happened. Some good, a lot bad. S...

December 11, 2018

In televised poker, there’s a bad moment after a player gets knocked out. 

The losing player gets up and shakes hands with whoever just took all their chips. They walk away from the table, and a TV guy puts a microphone in their face. 

The TV guy...

December 11, 2018

When the future is like the past, you don’t need new data. You can make a good decision based on old data. You can take the right action based on old data. When the future is like the past, taking the right action means doing what worked before.

  
When I work wit...

September 25, 2018

Working with risk is complicated. If you work in law enforcement or the military, you’ve got spreadsheets and computers and checklists to help you with risks. If you work in finance, you’ve got algorithms to help you make good decisions about risk. If you’re an entrepr...

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