# Spy's Guide

> Analytical frameworks from former CIA case officer John Braddock. The Spy's Guide book series teaches decision-making, strategy, and risk assessment using tools developed in intelligence work.

## Author

John Braddock was a case officer at the CIA. He developed, recruited and handled sources on weapons proliferation, counter-terrorism and political-military issues. He is the author of the Spy's Guide book series.

## Books

- [A Spy's Guide to Thinking](https://amzn.to/2x0CEkg): A four-step decision-making process - Data, Analysis, Decision, Action (DADA) - used by CIA officers to move from raw information to effective action.
- [A Spy's Guide to Strategy](https://amzn.to/2N39441): Endgames, zero-sum and positive-sum games, Boss Games, and how to reason backward from where you want to be.
- [A Spy's Guide to Taking Risks](https://amzn.to/2KlMg0R): How to evaluate risk by mapping necessary conditions (ANDs) and substitutable conditions (ORs).
- [The 24th Name](https://amzn.to/2L21dGy): A fiction novella applying the frameworks from the Spy's Guide series.

## Frameworks

- [The DADA Chain](https://spysguide.com/frameworks/dada-chain/): Data, Analysis, Decision, Action. A four-step decision-making process used by CIA officers.
- [Endgame Reasoning](https://spysguide.com/frameworks/endgame-reasoning/): Identify what each side wants the situation to look like when it's over, then reason backward.
- [Game Type Identification](https://spysguide.com/frameworks/game-types/): Determine whether you're in a zero-sum, positive-sum, or mixed game.
- [The Boss Game](https://spysguide.com/frameworks/boss-game/): A zero-sum game fought over who controls a positive-sum alliance - without destroying the alliance itself.
- [Source Analysis](https://spysguide.com/frameworks/source-analysis/): Evaluate the credibility of information by assessing the source's access, motivation, and track record.
- [The Risk Framework](https://spysguide.com/frameworks/risk-framework/): Analyze risk by mapping necessary conditions (ANDs) and substitutable conditions (ORs).

## Key Concepts

- **DADA Chain**: Data, Analysis, Decision, Action. Tracks a single actor's mind through each step.
- **Endgame**: Defined by three elements - people, place, and things. Who's there, where is it, and what does the situation look like when you've won.
- **Zero-Sum Game**: One side wins, the other loses.
- **Positive-Sum Game**: Both sides can win. Cooperation creates value for everyone.
- **Boss Game**: A zero-sum game inside a positive-sum game. A fight over who controls the alliance, not whether the alliance survives. The key feature is restraint.
- **ANDs and ORs**: Risk framework. ANDs are necessary conditions. ORs are substitutable conditions. More ANDs = lower risk. More ORs = higher risk.

## The Operative

[The Operative](https://operative.spysguide.com) is a strategic analysis service built on Braddock's CIA frameworks.

## Blog

The Spy's Guide blog applies these frameworks to current events, strategy, and decision-making: https://spysguide.com/#blog

## Contact

Email: spysguide@gmail.com