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Game Type Identification: A Spy's Strategic Framework

By John Braddock, former CIA case officer and author of the Spy's Guide series

What Is Game Type Identification?

Game Type Identification is a framework for identifying what type of strategic interaction you're in before you make a move. In a zero-sum game, one side wins and the other loses. In a positive-sum game, both sides can win. The most dangerous mistake in strategy is playing the wrong type of game — cooperating when you're in a zero-sum contest, or competing when collaboration would make both sides better off.

How It Works

There are three basic game types. Zero-sum games: one side wins, the other loses. Negotiations, competitions, and conflicts are often zero-sum. Positive-sum games: both sides can win. Trade, partnerships, and voluntary exchanges are positive-sum. The Boss Game: hierarchical power dynamics where one side sets the rules.

Many situations are a mix — or are disguised. A zero-sum game with a positive-sum label is the most dangerous configuration. Someone tells you 'we're all on the same team' while they're playing to win at your expense.

Identifying the game type is the FIRST question of strategy, before any other analysis. Get this wrong and everything that follows — your endgame, your risk assessment, your moves — will be wrong too.

The key question: Is the total value in this situation fixed (zero-sum) or can it grow (positive-sum)? If the pie is fixed, you're in a zero-sum game. If the pie can grow, you might be in a positive-sum game — but verify that the other side sees it that way too.

Example From the Field

In A Spy's Guide to Thinking, Braddock describes a meeting with a foreign official who lied to him. The critical question wasn't 'why did he lie?' — it was 'what game are we in?' If the lie meant they were in a zero-sum game — the source was working against him — then every future interaction needed to be treated as adversarial. If they were in a positive-sum game where the lie was just embarrassment or face-saving, then the relationship could continue.

The game type determined the entire response. Same lie, same data — but the game type changed everything about what to do next.

How to Apply It

  1. Before your first move in any strategic situation, ask: Is this zero-sum or positive-sum? Is the value here fixed, or can both sides create more?
  2. Look at the other side's behavior, not their words. People in positive-sum games share information. People in zero-sum games hide it.
  3. Watch for the most dangerous configuration: a zero-sum game disguised as positive-sum. If someone says 'we're partners' but acts like a competitor, trust the behavior.
  4. Once you've identified the game type, match your strategy. Cooperate in positive-sum games. Compete in zero-sum games. Don't mix them up.
  5. Reassess regularly. Games can change type. A positive-sum partnership can become zero-sum when resources get scarce. A zero-sum negotiation can become positive-sum when both sides find new value to create.

Related Frameworks

About the Author

John Braddock was a case officer at the CIA. He developed, recruited, and handled sources on weapons proliferation, counter-terrorism, and political-military issues.

Game Type Identification is a central framework in A Spy's Guide to Thinking and A Spy's Guide to Strategy.

Apply these frameworks to your specific situation with The Operative — a strategic analysis service built on Braddock's CIA frameworks.