Strategy is hard. It's hard because of risk, chance and uncertainty. It's hard because outcomes are hard. But it's especially hard because it requires three different mindsets. The first rule of strategy, as Dixit and Nalebuff say, is "Look forward and reason backward." That rule has two things in it: 1. Look forward. 2. Reason backward. It's hard to do both. Because they require two different mindsets. Looking forward is an act of imagination. It's creating a vision. It's ex