Once upon a time, there was only one way to be rich: Be powerful. If you were powerful, you could take from others. Through force, you could take from others the fruits of their labor. And even if you got rich by luck or skill, such as through a bumper crop or skilled animal breeding or finding gold, you would lose it to someone more powerful. Once upon a time, you had to be powerful to be rich. When you’re taking from others or trying to stop someone from taking from you, yo

In 2002, the U.S. military played a war game called “Millennium Challenge.” In charge of the "Blue" U.S. Forces were the highest-ranking U.S. generals and admirals. Leading the "Red" enemy was a retired U.S. Marine Corps General named Paul Van Riper. When you do a war game, you want the enemy to act like a real enemy. You want them to think like a real enemy. You want them to build a strategy like a real enemy. You want them to use real enemy tactics. That’s what Van Riper di

Investor Naval Ravikant is considered a sage in Silicon Valley. Dilbert creator and tech investor Scott Adams calls him one of the smartest people he knows. Naval (he prefers the single name brand) recently did a Periscope where he took questions from viewers. The whole discussion is interesting, but readers of the Spy’s Guide series will find his discussion of Positive-Sum and Zero-Sum Games fascinating. He takes those concepts beyond the thinking and strategic points in A S

When you’re figuring out the other side’s strategy, you start with their Endgame. That’s because most people follow the first rule of strategy: Look forward and reason backward. Strategies are built when people imagine an Endgame. From there, they reason backward. They build a strategy for getting the people, places and things for their Endgame to exist. Most strategies look like this: To learn more about this sequence, read A Spy’s Guide To Strategy. But sometimes you don’t

In A Spy’s Guide To Strategy, we talk about three steps every strategist must take: 1. Imagine the Endgame 2. Reason Backward 3. Take Action For most people, the difficult part is reasoning backward. That’s why A Spy’s Guide To Strategy spends a lot of time on a simple shortcut: the framework of Positive-Sum and Zero-Sum Games. For most people, imagining an Endgame and taking action are easier. Unless, you’re a leader. If you’re a leader, the most difficult part can be gettin

An astute reader of A Spy’s Guide To Strategy wrote, “I've known about the Hero’s Journey concept for years as a storytelling formula but never thought of it as a strategy!” The “Hero’s Journey” was famously described by Joseph Campbell. He said it’s in stories. It’s in myths. It’s even in religious sacraments and psychological development. He also called it the “monomyth.” If you want to learn more, read Joseph Campbell’s The Hero With A Thousand Faces. The connection to str

A strand through American history is "positive thinking." From Ben Franklin's advice to the "health and wealth gospel" of the 19th century to bestselling books by Anthony Robbins, Americans of all ages have heard, practiced and used "positive thinking." For a history of positive thinking, see: One of the more influential purveyors of positive thinking was Norman Vincent Peale. The Washington Post says: "At his peak, Peale reached millions through radio and television shows an

When Bin Laden attacked on 9/11, a lot of people said we should have seen it coming. He had declared war on the United States in 1996. He had bombed American embassies in Africa. He had the will to attack. But Bin Laden still appeared a distant threat. Because it takes more than will to attack. It also takes the capability to attack. Threats come from someone with both the capability and the will to attack. It looks like this: Before 9/11, few understood Bin Laden’s capabilit

Strategy is hard. It's hard because of risk, chance and uncertainty. It's hard because outcomes are hard. But it's especially hard because it requires three different mindsets. The first rule of strategy, as Dixit and Nalebuff say, is "Look forward and reason backward." That rule has two things in it: 1. Look forward. 2. Reason backward. It's hard to do both. Because they require two different mindsets. Looking forward is an act of imagination. It's creating a vision. It's ex

You can make strategy easy if you focus on one thing. A goal. An objective. A single measure. It's also a good way to make sure your strategy fails. Because a good strategy always requires more than one thing. One thing isn't enough. Not even close. When a business asks me to consult, it's because they have a problem. Or an opportunity. Or they're missing something and don't where to start. Whatever it is, they think it's one thing. A single problem. A single opportunity. A s