In 2002, the U.S. military played a war game called “Millennium Challenge.” In charge of the "Blue" U.S. Forces were the highest-ranking U.S. generals and admirals. Leading the "Red" enemy was a retired U.S. Marine Corps General named Paul Van Riper. When you do a war game, you want the enemy to act like a real enemy. You want them to think like a real enemy. You want them to build a strategy like a real enemy. You want them to use real enemy tactics. That’s what Van Riper di

In a trader's letter at Seeking Alpha, Nell Sloane says, “the prospect for protectionism and tariffs turning into currency wars, which then have a tendency to turn into hot wars, it is largely apparent this week things have certainly escalated.” Jonathan Hillman of CSIS says about tariffs and trade wars: “the hazards could be even greater than anyone wants to admit. As protectionist sentiment rises, so does the risk of war.” Will trade wars become real wars? “Trade wars” are

A few months ago, China's President Xi said: "We must refrain from seeking dominance and reject the zero-sum game, we must refrain from 'beggar thy neighbor' and reject power politics or hegemony while the strong bully the weak." The Zero-Sum Game he's talking about is in trade. China and the U.S. have placed or threatened tariffs on each other's goods. Some are calling that a "trade war." As noted before, trade is a Positive-Sum Game. Both sides are better off from trade, or

There are reports of a “Trade War” between the U.S. and China. CNBC reports: Trade tensions, which have recently been in the spotlight, continued to simmer: The U.S. Trade Representative's office published its proposed list of around 1,300 Chinese imports that could be hit with tariffs. In response, China said via an embassy statement it opposed the additional tariffs proposed and that "it is only polite to reciprocate," Reuters reported. China's ambassador to the U.S. also

The Data-Analysis-Decision-Action process in A Spy’s Guide To Thinking isn’t static. It isn’t something you do one time. It’s born from Boyd’s OODA Loop. As a loop, you cycle through the DADA process as many times as you can. After you act, you observe the results. You collect new data. You feed the new data into your analysis. So you make better decisions each time around. You get feedback. And you use it to inform what you do next. You can have a problem at any of the stage

In Victor Davis Hanson’s The Second World Wars (plural), there’s a discussion about how World War II started. Hanson says, “Emotions push states to war as much as does greed” (p. 25). In A Spy’s Guide To Strategy, we use a simple model to analyze strategies. It looks like this: Strategists have a Positive-Sum Endgame in mind. They reason backward through Zero-Sum Games of conflict and Positive-Sum Games of alliance, then take action to build and win those games to reach their

I’ve been part of the most powerful organization in the world. I’ve been part of startups. I’ve been a consultant to CEOs. I’ve started my own companies. I’ve hired, fired and hired again. I’ve managed investor money and invested in other companies. If you do these things, there’s one thing you need: You need simple. You need simple because you’re working with complex data. You’re modeling and building forecasts and doing analytics. You’re making decisions and advising decisi

Positive-Sum Games and Zero-Sum Games are important. Positive-Sum Games are win-win games. Zero-Sum Games are win-lose games. When you put them together in a sequence, you can understand others’ strategies. They also help you build your own (See A Spy’s Guide To Strategy for how those sequences work). Negative-Sum Games don’t matter as much for strategies. Most of the time. They don’t matter because people usually avoid lose-lose games. You see it when you drive. Drivers are

Soccer (or football) is a zero-sum game. At the end, there's a winner. And a loser. Or a tie. Only two ways the game can end, but three possible outcomes for each team. However the game ends, the total gained for the teams is zero. Zero-Sum. When you think about Zero-Sum Games, you think about rules. You think about how to win. You think about how to win within the rules. You also think about how rule changes could make for a better game. In soccer, you win by scoring the mos